Arwen Smit

Governments, militaries and organisations need to understand how artificial intelligence is reshaping strategic competition, national security and the balance of global power. Arwen Smit is a geopolitical AI risk analyst and founder of Red Line, a research and advisory platform examining how frontier technologies alter deterrence dynamics, military doctrine and international stability. Currently researching the security implications of open-source AI at the University of Cambridge, where she studies how open model ecosystems are shifting the competitive landscape between major powers, Arwen equips leaders with sharp, grounded frameworks to navigate AI's geopolitical risks and make informed strategic decisions in an era of rapid technological change.

Governments, militaries and businesses face a rapidly shifting technological landscape where artificial intelligence is fundamentally altering strategic competition, national security doctrine, and global power dynamics. Arwen Smit is a geopolitical AI risk analyst who examines how artificial intelligence reshapes the balance of power between states and how geopolitics, in turn, shapes AI development. As founder of Red Line, a research and advisory platform focused on geopolitical technology risk, she specialises in the national security and strategic implications of frontier technologies, with particular emphasis on how AI capabilities are transforming deterrence dynamics, military doctrine, and international stability.

Arwen's expertise draws from rigorous academic research and applied analysis at the intersection of technology and statecraft. She is currently researching the security implications of open-source AI at the University of Cambridge, where she reads international relations at POLIS, with specific focus on how open model ecosystems are converging national security interests between the United States and China. Her work examines the vulnerabilities created when AI weights, once released, can be freely used by parties that might otherwise lack access to cutting-edge capabilities due to hardware export controls. Through Red Line, she analyses how open models are becoming a critical weak point in US AI dominance, and how China's emergence as the dominant open stack is reshaping the competitive landscape. Arwen has shared her insights at major international conferences including CogX, Aspen, COP27, and TEDx, bringing sharp, grounded frameworks to complex strategic questions.

Arwen equips audiences with practical understanding of how AI is redrawing geopolitical boundaries and what this means for organisational strategy, policy development, and national security planning. Her presentations translate intricate technical and strategic concepts into actionable intelligence, helping leaders understand the real-world implications of AI diffusion, open-source ecosystems, and technological competition. Whether addressing how governments must adapt their security postures, how companies should navigate geopolitical technology risk, or how open-source AI could alter strategic stability, Arwen delivers analysis that is both intellectually rigorous and immediately applicable. Audiences leave with clarity on the forces shaping the future of AI governance and the strategic choices that will define technological competition in the years ahead