The Global Impact of 2024 Elections on the International Stage in 2025

The year 2024 has been so far pivotal for global politics, with key elections around the world shaping the future of international relations and geopolitical stability. As we move towards the end of the year, many of these elections—including those in the United Kingdom, India, and Mexico—have already taken place, while others, such as the U.S. presidential election, are still forthcoming.

But what do all the elections mean for the international stage?

A Look at Major Elections in 2024

Key elections around the world this year will have direct and lasting effects on international relations, trade, and diplomacy. The outcomes in the United Kingdom, India, Mexico and the United States are particularly noteworthy, as leadership changes and shifts in policy will influence global alliances and strategic decisions for years to come.

United Kingdom: A New Political Landscape

The UK’s general election in early October 2024 marked a significant shift in British politics. Labour leader Keir Starmer led his party to a clear victory, ousting the Conservative Party after 14 years of leadership. This result is set to change the UK’s domestic and foreign policy direction, with Labour prioritising issues like climate change, economic equality, and rebuilding ties with Europe.

Starmer’s government will likely seek to renegotiate parts of the Brexit deal to improve trade relations with the EU, mainly focusing on reducing barriers to exports and increasing cooperation on climate and security. However, rejoining the EU remains off the table. Labour’s approach to foreign policy is also expected to be more multilateral than that of the previous Conservative government, with an emphasis on international diplomacy and global cooperation on pressing issues such as climate action, global inequality, and human rights.

On the global stage, the UK’s strong position in NATO will continue, especially in light of ongoing security concerns related to the war in Ukraine. Labour’s commitment to international cooperation could also lead to increased UK involvement in global peacekeeping efforts and humanitarian interventions alongside its NATO partners.

Relations with the United States will remain a cornerstone of British foreign policy, but under Starmer, the UK may seek a more balanced relationship that focuses on mutual benefit rather than closely aligning with the US foreign policy. This shift could also see the UK taking a more independent stance on key global issues while maintaining strong defence and trade ties with the US, especially depending on the presidential election result.

India: A Decisive Mandate for Modi’s Vision

India’s general elections, held earlier in late spring of 2024, resulted in a victory for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Modi’s third consecutive term solidifies his leadership and ensures the continuation of his government’s policies, particularly in foreign affairs and economic development.

India’s role as a rising global power has grown under Modi, mainly through its participation in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), which includes the U.S., Japan, and Australia. This alliance aims to counter China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region, and Modi’s re-election signals continued Indian leadership in this effort. Modi’s focus on bolstering India’s defence capabilities, fostering technological innovation, and expanding economic ties with the West is expected to remain central to his foreign policy.

India’s delicate balancing act between the US and Russia will also continue. While Modi has deepened ties with the US, particularly in defence and trade, India maintains strong historical ties with Russia, especially in energy imports and military cooperation. India’s position on the Russia-Ukraine war has been neutral, and this balancing act will likely persist as Modi continues to prioritise India’s economic and security interests while maintaining strategic autonomy.

In the coming years, India’s growing economic clout will also make it an increasingly important player in global trade and climate diplomacy. Modi’s government is committed to positioning India as a leader in renewable energy, and in his third term, further efforts are likely to be made to secure India’s role in global climate negotiations.

Mexico: A New Direction

Mexico’s general elections, held in June 2024, resulted in a victory for Claudia Sheinbaum, the chosen successor of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) and a member of the ruling Morena party. Sheinbaum’s presidency is expected to carry forward AMLO’s policies, which have focused on energy independence, social programmes, and nationalism in economic policy.

On the international stage, Mexico’s relationship with the US remains crucial, particularly in areas such as trade, immigration, and security. Under Sheinbaum, we can expect continued collaboration with the US under the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement), with an emphasis on managing cross-border migration and combatting drug trafficking. At the same time, Sheinbaum has indicated a stronger focus on climate change and renewable energy, which could lead to increased cooperation between Mexico and the U.S. on environmental issues.

Mexico will also likely continue to play a growing role in Latin American diplomacy, positioning itself as a key voice in regional politics, particularly on trade, climate change, and migration.

The U.S. Presidential Election: Global Implications

As the US prepares for its presidential election in November 2024, the stakes are high for the international community. Current Vice President Kamala Harris is the Democratic candidate aiming to succeed President Joe Biden. Her candidacy brings continuity to Biden’s policies, especially regarding climate change, international alliances, and support for Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Republican candidate, Donald Trump, could drastically reshape US foreign policy if elected.

Kamala Harris: Continuity and Global Cooperation

If Kamala Harris wins the presidency, we can expect a continuation of the Biden administration’s foreign policy priorities, particularly its focus on climate action, rebuilding international alliances, and standing up to authoritarian regimes. Harris, like Biden, is committed to US leadership on global issues such as climate change, international security, and democracy promotion.

One of the key issues under a Harris administration would be climate diplomacy. The Biden administration made significant efforts to re-engage the US in global climate negotiations, and Harris is likely to push even further on initiatives such as transitioning to renewable energy, reducing carbon emissions, and leading international climate efforts. This would keep the US at the forefront of global climate action, strengthening ties with other nations committed to climate goals, particularly in Europe.

In terms of security, Harris would likely maintain the US’s strong support for NATO and Ukraine, ensuring that American military and financial aid to counter Russian aggression continues. Harris would also focus on the U.S. pivot towards the Indo-Pacific, strengthening regional partnerships through the Quad and other alliances to counter China’s growing influence.

Republican Victory: A Return to 'America First'?

If Donald Trump wins, the international community could face a much different US foreign policy. Trump’s "America First" agenda, characterised by a more isolationist stance and a preference for bilateral over multilateral agreements, could reduce US involvement in international organisations like NATO and the United Nations.

Trump could seek to renegotiate trade agreements or even withdraw from major climate accords, as he did during his first term. This shift could disrupt global climate action, as the US is one of the world’s largest carbon emitters. In addition, US foreign policy could become more transactional, with less emphasis on global cooperation and more focus on short-term American economic and security interests.

This isolationist approach might weaken the international community’s response to global crises, from climate change to security threats, and could embolden authoritarian regimes like Russia and China, which would benefit from a less engaged US on the world stage.

What’s next?

The 2024 elections have already begun to reshape the international stage, with key results in the UK, India, and Mexico laying the groundwork for significant shifts in global politics. As we await the US presidential election in November, the world watches closely to see whether there is continuity under Kamala Harris or a return to populism under Donald Trump.

The outcomes of these elections will have lasting effects on everything from global security and climate action to trade and diplomatic relations. The world is entering a period of uncertainty and opportunity, and the decisions made by these new governments will define the international landscape for years to come.