2024 Trump Victory Explained: Economic, Social, and International Policy Insights

Donald Trump's recent 2025 presidential win has generated both national and global interest, reshaping US politics and sparking debates on the future of key policies. With Republicans also securing a majority in the Senate, Trump's victory represents a dramatic shift in the US political landscape.

A Changing World Stage

2024 saw a series of pivotal elections worldwide that will likely reshape international relations. However, few events carry as much global significance as the US presidential election. Trump's win signals a potential shift in US policy on numerous fronts, from climate and trade to immigration and foreign policy. The changes under Trump's administration will affect both businesses and individuals in the US and internationally. This analysis aims to unravel the reasons behind his victory and examine what his administration might mean for the world.

Elections Result: Why Did Trump Win?

On the 5th of November, the Republican candidate took the victory after winning over swing states such as Georgia and Wisconsin. It wasn’t a landslide win but a confident one for Donald Trump, who will officially become the next US president on 20th January 2025. But what did he win?

Donald Trump's return to the White House can be attributed to multiple factors, each reflecting the public's discontent with the current state of the nation. His campaign strategically capitalised on this dissatisfaction, appealing to a broad base of voters concerned about economic challenges, international influence, and political leadership.

1. Capitalising on Economic Dissatisfaction

Throughout his campaign, Trump highlighted high inflation, rising living costs, and perceived economic mismanagement under the Biden administration. Many Americans have struggled with these economic issues, particularly in the middle- and lower-income brackets. By attributing these problems to Biden's policies, Trump appealed to voters frustrated by the financial hardships of the past few years. His promise to restore economic stability and reduce costs resonated with working-class and middle-income voters, who perceived him as a better economic manager due to his business background.

2. Promoting Nationalism and Sovereignty

Trump's campaign successfully tapped into sentiments of nationalism, emphasising the need for the US to reclaim its status as a global leader without depending on international alliances. His "America First" message was particularly effective among voters who feel that the US has become too entangled in foreign conflicts and global obligations. By pledging to make the US self-reliant and less dependent on international institutions, Trump attracted those who desire a more isolationist approach and a focus on domestic issues.

3. Appealing to "Everyday" Americans

Trump's bold, unapologetic personality was a significant factor in his appeal, especially among voters who feel disconnected from the "elite" political class. His direct approach, often contrasting with traditional political decorum, resonated with many Americans who see him as an authentic and relatable figure. This appeal was particularly strong among working-class voters, who view Washington's political elite with scepticism. Trump's branding as an "outsider" willing to challenge the status quo was a powerful factor in his ability to attract votes.

4. Weaknesses in the Democratic Campaign

The Democrats faced challenges of their own in this election. Kamala Harris, who entered the race late, struggled to establish her platform as a strong alternative to Trump. Many voters perceived Harris as an extension of Biden's administration, with criticisms of her campaign suggesting she was unable to distance herself from unpopular policies. Additionally, some Americans questioned whether Harris had the leadership experience to address the country's challenges.

What Now? Trump's Policy Promises and Potential Impact

Like any politician, Trump made sweeping promises during his campaign. However, the feasibility of implementing these policies varies, as some proposals are ambitious and could face domestic and international resistance. Here's a closer look at Trump's main policy focuses and what they might realistically mean for the future:

1. Immigration Reform and Border Control

Trump's immigration policies were a cornerstone of his campaign, with pledges to increase border security and tighten restrictions on asylum seekers and migrant workers. He expressed plans to reintroduce previous policies that restricted migration, particularly from Latin American countries, and implement stricter vetting processes for immigrants. While these measures are likely to gain traction among his supporters, they may face pushback from advocacy groups and potentially from within Congress, limiting the extent to which Trump can enforce sweeping changes.

2. Trade Policies and Economic Independence

Trump promised to implement tariffs on Chinese goods and encourage domestic production, aiming to reduce the US's reliance on foreign imports. His proposed policies reflect a protectionist approach, which could lead to strained trade relations with major partners, particularly China. However, his ability to reshape trade practices will depend heavily on the cooperation of Congress and other stakeholders, who may resist policies that could disrupt established trade channels or lead to price increases for American consumers.

3. Energy and Climate Policy

In alignment with his "America First" philosophy, Trump has expressed intentions to reduce clean energy investments, refocus on fossil fuel production, and withdraw the US from the Paris Climate Agreement. These measures are popular among his base but may have significant implications for US commitments to global climate change initiatives. Although his policies will likely slow the country's transition to renewable energy, the clean energy sector has gained momentum in recent years and may continue to grow independently of federal policy.

4. International Relations and US Foreign Policy

Trump's presidency is expected to bring about a significant shift in US foreign relations, particularly with Russia. His administration's potential adjustments to US involvement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict could have far-reaching implications. There are concerns that Trump's approach might lead to reduced US support for Ukraine, potentially altering the balance of power in the conflict and impacting NATO alliances. However, it's important to note that the president's ability to unilaterally alter foreign policy is limited, as he must work with Congress on key decisions.

5. Social Policies and Domestic Governance

Trump's campaign also addressed domestic issues such as healthcare and education reform, but his primary focus remains on economic growth and national security. His approach to social policies, which tends to align with conservative values, could spark debates over funding for programs like Medicaid and public education. Trump's emphasis on 'small government' could drive efforts to reduce federal involvement in these areas, potentially impacting state-level funding and the accessibility of social services.

The Impact on Business and Markets

Trump's win has already prompted mixed reactions in global markets, with investors uncertain about how his policies might affect economic stability. His approach to trade and tariffs could impact a range of industries, particularly those involved in international commerce. The business sector may need to remain adaptable to navigate the potential disruptions and regulatory changes that could come with a Trump administration.

1. Trade and Manufacturing

Trump's focus on tariffs could make imported goods more expensive, encouraging consumers and businesses to "buy American." This could boost certain domestic industries, but it may also lead to supply chain disruptions and cost increases for companies reliant on foreign materials. Businesses involved in international trade may face challenges adjusting to these changes, especially as Trump pushes for reduced economic dependence on foreign powers.

2. Energy Sector and Environmental Regulations

The energy sector may see significant changes under Trump, with traditional fossil fuel industries potentially experiencing a resurgence as renewable energy projects face slowed growth. While Trump's policies may benefit oil and gas producers, they could impact the renewable energy sector, which has gained popularity under recent administrations. Companies in this space may need to strategize around federal policies and consider alternative funding sources to sustain growth.

3. Stock Market and Investment Landscape

The financial market's response to Trump's victory has been cautious, with some volatility expected as businesses and investors assess the implications of his policies. Although Trump's pro-business approach could lead to reduced regulations and corporate tax cuts, his stance on trade and tariffs introduces uncertainties that could impact investor confidence in the long term. Businesses may need to adopt agile strategies to remain competitive amid potential shifts in market conditions.

Preparing for the Future: Flexibility and Foresight

Trump's return to power highlights the importance of flexibility and adaptability for businesses navigating today's complex economic and political landscapes. The potential shifts in policy under his administration require companies to consider not only the immediate impact of US policies but also broader factors shaping the business environment. For instance, advancements in technology, changes in consumer expectations, and ongoing geopolitical tensions outside the US are all relevant considerations for future planning. While Trump's administration may introduce regulatory changes, businesses must also account for external economic and social forces influencing the markets.

Companies looking to prepare for the upcoming years will benefit from consulting experts on economic, geopolitical, and social trends. By keeping a flexible approach and staying informed on policy changes, businesses can better position themselves to capitalise on opportunities and mitigate risks in a rapidly changing world. At Speakers Corner, we work with a range of world-renowned experts on geopolitics and the economy (many of them specialise in the US) who can help your business.

See some of our amazing speakers who can help you here, or get in touch with our friendly and impartial team by giving us a call on 02076077070 or emailing us at info@speakerscorner.co.uk